好英语网IMF警告世界经济面临严重下滑风险
WASHINGTON — The world economy faces the increasing risk of a painful slowdown amid worries about the global banking system and concerns that rising interest rates could force banks to curtail lending, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.
华盛顿——国际货币基金组织（下称IMF）周二表示，由于对全球银行体系的担忧以及利率上升可能迫使银行减少放贷的问题，世界经济出现严重下滑的风险日益增加。
The warning follows weeks of turmoil in the global banking sector, which included two bank failures in the United States and UBS’s takeover of Credit Suisse, brokered by the Swiss government. Fears that bank runs would ripple through the financial system have abated in recent weeks, but concerns that additional bank failures and tightening lending standards could slow economic output around the world remain.
该警告发出前，全球银行业经历了数周的动荡，美国两家银行倒闭，瑞银在瑞士政府的斡旋下收购瑞士信贷。最近几周，对银行挤兑会波及整个金融体系的担忧有所减弱，但人们仍然担忧更多银行倒闭以及收紧贷款标准可能减缓全球经济产出。
国际货币基金组织发出警告之前，全球银行业经历了数周的动荡，其中包括瑞银收购瑞士信贷。
In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the I.M.F. made a slight reduction to its growth forecast for 2023, lowering it to 2.8 percent, from 2.9 percent in January. Growth for the year is expected to be much slower than the I.M.F. predicted a year ago, when it projected output of 3.4 percent.
在最新的《世界经济展望》报告中，IMF将2023年的增长预测从1月的2.9%略微下调至2.8%。今年经济增长的预计将远低于IMF一年前3.4%的预测。
Growth projections for Japan, Germany and India were all lowered since the start of the year, when the I.M.F. said a global recession would most likely be avoided.
自年初以来，日本、德国和印度的增长预测都被下调，当时IMF表示，很可能可以避免全球经济衰退。
The I.M.F. and the World Bank have both raised alarms in recent weeks that the global economy is facing a period of extended stagnation. The I.M.F. expects growth to hover around 3 percent for the next five years, which is its weakest medium-term growth forecast since 1990.
最近几周，IMF和世界银行都发出警告，称全球经济正面临长期停滞。IMF预计未来五年的增长率将徘徊在3%左右，这是自1990年以来最弱的中期增长预测。
On Tuesday, the I.M.F. expressed optimism that a financial crisis could be averted, but it lamented that inflation was still elevated and that the global economy remained fragile, facing a “rocky” road ahead. It suggested that a so-called hard landing, which could entail economies around the world tipping into recession, was increasingly plausible.
周二，IMF表示对于可以避免金融危机持乐观态度，但遗憾的是通胀仍在高位，全球经济依然脆弱，前路“坎坷”。它表明所谓的硬着陆越来越有可能导致世界各地的经济陷入衰退。
“A hard landing — particularly for advanced economies — has become a much larger risk,” the I.M.F. report said, adding, “The fog around the world economic outlook has thickened.”
IMF的报告称：“硬着陆——尤其是对发达经济体而言——已成为一个更大的风险，”报告还说，“围绕世界经济前景的迷雾已经变浓。”
The dimmer forecast comes as top economic officials from around the world are convening in Washington this week for the spring meetings of the I.M.F. and World Bank. The gathering is taking place at a moment of high uncertainty, with Russia’s war in Ukraine grinding on, prices around the world remaining stubbornly high and debt burdens in developing countries raising unease about the possibility of defaults.
发布黯淡前景预测之时，本周世界各地的高级经济官员在华盛顿召开IMF和世界银行的春季会议。这次会议是在高度不确定的时刻举行的，俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争仍在继续，世界各地物价居高不下，发展中国家的债务负担加剧了人们对潜在违约的担忧。
Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen is expected to meet with other international regulators this week to assess the state of the global financial system. On Tuesday, she expressed confidence in the U.S. banking system and the health of the economy, explaining that she continues to believe that the outlook is brighter than what many economists predicted last fall.
预计财政部长珍妮特·L·耶伦本周将与其他国际监管机构会面，评估全球金融体系的状况。周二，她表达了对美国银行体系和经济健康的信心，并解释说她仍然相信前景比许多经济学家去年秋天预测的要光明。
“Here at home, the U.S. banking system remains sound, with strong capital and liquidity positions,” Ms. Yellen said during a news conference. “The global financial system also remains resilient due to the significant reforms that nations took after the financial crisis.”
“在国内，美国银行体系依然稳健，资本和流动性状况良好，”耶伦在新闻发布会上说。“由于各国在金融危机后进行的重大改革，全球金融体系也保持了适应力。”
Ms. Yellen said she remained “vigilant” to the risks facing the economy, pointing to recent pressures on banking systems in the United States and Europe and the potential for more fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine. She is not currently seeing evidence that credit is contracting, she added, but acknowledged that it was a possibility.
耶伦表示，她对经济面临的风险持“警惕”态度源于美国和欧洲银行系统近期面临的压力，以及俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争可能带来的更多影响。她还说，她目前没有看到信贷正在收缩的证据，但承认存在这种可能。
“I’m not anticipating a downturn in the economy, although, of course, that remains a risk,” Ms. Yellen said.
“我预计经济不会出现下滑，但当然，风险仍然存在，”耶伦说。
The I.M.F. made a small upgrade to its projection for U.S. output, which is now expected to be 1.6 percent for 2023.
IMF小幅上调了对美国产出的预测，目前预计2023年为1.6%。
Economists are still working to assess what effects the bank failures might have on the broader U.S. economy. Analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a research note this week that bank stress could reduce lending by as much as six percentage points and that small businesses, which rely heavily on small and midsize banks, could bear the brunt of tighter lending.
经济学家们仍在评估银行倒闭可能对美国整体经济产生的影响。高盛分析师本周在一份研究报告中写道，银行压力可能会导致贷款减少多达六个百分点，而严重依赖中小银行的小企业可能会受到贷款收紧的冲击。
The I.M.F. attributed the strain on the financial sector to banks with business models that relied heavily on a continuation of low interest rates and failed to adjust to the rapid pace of increases in the last year. Although it appears that the turbulence in the banking sector might be contained, the I.M.F. noted that investors and depositors remained highly sensitive to developments in the banking sector.
IMF将金融业的压力归咎于银行的商业模式严重依赖于低利率的持续，未能适应去年的快速加息。尽管银行业的动荡似乎可能得到控制，但IMF指出，投资者和储户对银行业的动向仍然高度敏感。
Unrealized losses at banks could lead to a “plausible scenario” of additional shocks that could have a “potentially significant impact on the global economy” if credit conditions tighten further and businesses and households have an even harder time borrowing.
如果信贷条件进一步收紧，企业和家庭的借贷更加困难，银行未变现的损失可能会导致额外冲击的“合理情景”，这可能“对全球经济产生潜在的重大影响”。
“The risks are again heavily weighted to the downside and in large part because of the financial turmoil of the last month and a half,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the I.M.F.’s chief economist, said at a briefing ahead of the report’s release.
国际货币基金组织首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维尔·古林查斯在报告发布前的一次简报会上说，“风险再次严重偏向于下行，这在很大程度上是因为过去一个半月的金融动荡。”
In the most severe scenario, in which global credit conditions tighten sharply, the I.M.F. projected that global growth could slow to 1 percent this year.
在最严重的情况下，即全球信贷状况急剧收紧，IMF预计，今年的全球经济增长可能会放缓至1%。
Mr. Gourinchas noted that the financial system was not the only cloud hanging over the global economy. Hopes for stronger growth have been hinging on China’s reopening after strict pandemic regulations, and changes to that policy could slow output and disrupt international commerce, he said. At the same time, Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to threaten the reliability of food and energy supply chains.
古林查斯指出，金融体系的问题并不是笼罩在全球经济上空的唯一阴云。他说，人们一直寄望于中国在严格防疫后的重新开放带来更强劲的增长，这一政策的变化可能会减缓产出并扰乱国际贸易。与此同时，俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争继续威胁着食品和能源供应链的可靠性。
The I.M.F. has been playing a leading role in trying to stabilize the Ukrainian economy, and last month it approved a $15.6 billion loan package for Ukraine, the first such financing program for a country involved in a major war. But despite the efforts by Western nations to buttress Ukraine and weaken Russia, the I.M.F. raised its outlook for the Russian economy, projecting it will grow 0.7 percent this year and 1.3 percent in 2024.
在努力稳定乌克兰经济的过程中，IMF一直发挥着主导作用。上个月，IMF批准了一项156亿美元的乌克兰贷款计划，这是首次向一个卷入重大战争的国家提供此类融资计划。不过，尽管西方国家在努力支持乌克兰，削弱俄罗斯，IMF还是上调了对俄罗斯经济的预期，预计该国今年将增长0.7%，2024年将增长1.3%。
The I.M.F. noted that Russia’s energy exports continued to be robust, allowing it to support its economy through government spending. The impact of efforts by the United States and Europe to cap the price of Russian oil at $60 a barrel remains unclear because global oil prices have been falling amid recession fears. I.M.F. officials said that because of lower oil prices, Russian oil was no longer trading at as much of a discount and that Russia had been successful at finding ways to circumvent the price cap.
IMF指出，俄罗斯的能源出口持续强劲，使其能够通过政府支出来维持其经济。美国和欧洲将俄罗斯石油价格限制在每桶60美元的努力所产生的影响尚不清楚，因为在经济衰退的担忧中，全球石油价格一直在下跌。IMF官员表示，由于油价下跌，俄罗斯石油不再以那么大的折扣进行交易，而且俄罗斯已经成功地找到了规避价格上限的方法。
Even as it underscored the risks facing the global economy, the I.M.F. urged central banks to maintain their efforts to contain prices while standing ready to stabilize the financial system, noting that inflation is still too elevated relative to their targets.
尽管IMF强调了全球经济面临的风险，但它敦促各国央行继续努力控制物价，同时做好稳定金融体系的准备，并指出，相对于他们的目标，通胀水平仍然过高。
Despite the I.M.F.’s warnings about a hard landing, Ms. Yellen sought to open this week’s meetings with a note of optimism. She pointed to signs that inflation is diminishing and the resilience of the financial system as reasons for hope.
尽管IMF发出了硬着陆的警告，耶伦还是试图以乐观的语气开启本周的会议。她指出，有迹象表明，通货膨胀正在减弱，而且金融体系有足够的适应力，这都令人们有理由保持希望。
“I wouldn’t overdo the negativism about the global economy,” Ms. Yellen said. “I think we should be more positive.”
“我不会对全球经济过于悲观，”耶伦说。“我认为我们应该更加积极。”
She added: “I think the outlook is reasonably bright.”
她还说：“我认为前景可以说是光明的。”