好英语网FBI的搜查会帮助特朗普再次当选？
Why is Donald Trump so powerful? How did he come to dominate one of the two major parties and get himself elected president? Is it his hair? His waistline? No, it’s his narratives. Trump tells powerful stories that ring true to tens of millions of Americans.
为什么唐纳德·特朗普如此强大？他是怎样统治了两大政党之一并当选总统的？是因为他的头发，还是因为他的腰围？不，是因为他的叙事。特朗普讲述了对数千万美国人来说真实可信的有力故事。
The main one is that America is being ruined by corrupt coastal elites. According to this narrative, there is an interlocking network of highly educated Americans who make up what the Trumpians have come to call the Regime: Washington power players, liberal media, big foundations, elite universities, woke corporations. These people are corrupt, condescending and immoral and are looking out only for themselves. They are out to get Trump because Trump is the person who stands up to them. They are not only out to get Trump; they are out to get you.
其中最主要的一个故事是美国正在被腐败的沿海地区精英们摧毁。根据这种叙事，有一个由受过高等教育的美国人组成的盘根错节的网络，构成了特朗普支持者所称的“政权”(Regime)：华盛顿的弄权者、自由派媒体、大基金会、精英大学、觉醒企业。这些人腐败、傲慢、不道德，只关心自己。他们要对付特朗普，因为特朗普是敢于对抗他们的人。他们不仅想对付特朗普；他们还想对付你。
This narrative has a core of truth to it. Highly educated metropolitan elites have become something of a self-enclosed Brahmin class. But the Trumpian propaganda turns what is an unfortunate social chasm into venomous conspiracy theory. It simply assumes, against a lot of evidence, that the leading institutions of society are inherently corrupt, malevolent and partisan and are acting in bad faith.
这种叙述有一个真实的核心。受过高等教育的都市精英已经在某种程度上成为自我封闭的婆罗门阶层。但特朗普式的宣传将一个不幸的社会鸿沟变成了恶毒的阴谋论。尽管有大量证据可以证伪，它依然简单地假设社会的主要机构在本质上是腐败的、恶毒的、党派化的，而且心怀不轨。
It simply assumes that the proof of people’s virtue is that they’re getting attacked by the Regime. Trump’s political career has been kept afloat by elite scorn. The more elites scorn him, the more Republicans love him. The key criterion for leadership in the Republican Party today is having the right enemies.
它简单地假设，人民受到“政权”的攻击本身证明了他们的美德。特朗普的政治生涯一直是靠精英的蔑视来维持的。精英阶层越鄙视他，共和党人就越喜欢他。如今，衡量共和党领袖地位的关键标准是要有正确的敌人。
Into this situation walks the F.B.I. There’s a lot we don’t know about the search at Mar-a-Lago. But we do know how the Republican Party reacted. The right side of my Twitter feed was ecstatic. See! We really are persecuted! Essays began to appear with titles like “The Regime Wants Its Revenge.” Ron DeSantis tweeted, “The raid of MAL is another escalation in the weaponization of federal agencies against the Regime’s political opponents.” As usual, the tone was apocalyptic. “This is the worst attack on this Republic in modern history,” the Fox News host Mark Levin exclaimed.
联邦调查局就是在这样的情境下出场的，关于马阿拉歌庄园的搜查，我们还有很多不知道的事情。但我们知道共和党的反应。我Twitter上关注的右派人士欣喜若狂。看！我们真的被迫害了！标题为《政权要报复》的文章开始出现。罗恩·德桑蒂斯在Twitter上写道：“对马阿拉歌庄园的搜查是联邦机构针对‘政权’的政治对手动武的又一次升级。”和往常一样，他们使用的语气就像世界末日来了。“这是近代史上对这个共和国最严重的攻击，”福克斯新闻主持人马克·莱文惊呼。
The investigation into Trump was seen purely as a heinous Regime plot. At least for now, the search has shaken the Republican political landscape. Several weeks ago, about half of Republican voters were ready to move on from Trump, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. This week the entire party seemed to rally behind him. Republican strategists advising Trump’s potential primary opponents had reason to be despondent. “Completely handed him a lifeline,” one such strategist told Politico. “Unbelievable … It put everybody in the wagon for Trump again. It’s just taken the wind out of everybody’s sails.”
对特朗普的调查被视为纯粹是令人发指的“政权”阴谋。至少就目前而言，搜查行动已经动摇了共和党的政治格局。几周前，根据《纽约时报》和锡耶纳学院的一项民调，大约一半的共和党选民准备放弃特朗普。本周，整个政党似乎都在支持他。为特朗普的潜在初选对手提供建议的共和党策略师有理由感到沮丧。“这完全是给了他一根救命稻草，”其中一位策略师告诉Politico。“难以置信……这让所有人再次支持特朗普。这一下大家都不好说什么了。”
According to a Trafalgar Group/Convention of States Action survey, 83 percent of likely Republican voters said the F.B.I. search made them more motivated to vote in the 2022 elections. Over 75 percent of likely Republican voters believed Trump’s political enemies were behind the search rather than the impartial justice system, as did 48 percent of likely general election voters overall.
根据特拉法加集团/各州行动公约的一项调查，可能投给共和党的选民中有83%的人表示，联邦调查局的搜查让他们更有动力在2022年的选举中投票。超过75%的人认为搜查的幕后推手是特朗普的政敌，而不是公正的司法体系，在可能参与大选投票的选民中，48%的人也这么认为。
In a normal society, when politicians get investigated or charged, it hurts them politically. But that no longer applies to the G.O.P. The judicial system may be colliding with the political system in an unprecedented way.
在一个正常的社会中，当政治人物受到调查或指控时，他们在政治上就会受到伤害。但这已不再适用于共和党。司法体系可能正在以一种前所未有的方式与政治体系发生冲突。
What happens if a prosecutor charges Trump and he is convicted just as he is cruising to the G.O.P. nomination or maybe even the presidency? What happens if the legal system, using its criteria, decides Trump should go to prison at the very moment that the electoral system, using its criteria, decides he should go to the White House?
如果检察官指控特朗普，并在他获得共和党提名甚至总统职位时将他定罪，那会发生什么？如果法律系统按照它的标准判定特朗普应该进监狱，而选举系统按照它的标准判定他应该入主白宫，那会发生什么?
I presume in those circumstances Trump would be arrested and imprisoned. I also presume we would see widespread political violence from incensed Trump voters who would conclude that the Regime has stolen the country. In my view, this is the most likely path to a complete democratic breakdown.
我认为在这种情况下，特朗普会被捕入狱。我还认为，届时我们会看到愤怒的特朗普选民带来广泛的政治暴力，他们会得出结论，认为“政权”偷走了这个国家。在我看来，这是最有可能导致民主彻底崩溃的途径。
In theory, justice is blind, and obviously no person can be above the law. But as Damon Linker wrote in a Substack post, “This is a polity, not a graduate seminar in Kantian ethics.” We live in a specific real-world situation, and we all have to take responsibility for the real-world effects of our actions.
理论上，正义是不讲人情的，显然没有人可以凌驾于法律之上。但正如达蒙·林克在Substack的帖子中所写的那样，“这是一个政体，不是康德伦理学的研究生研讨班。”我们生活在一个特定的现实世界中，我们都必须为我们的行为在现实世界中的影响负责。
America absolutely needs to punish those who commit crimes. On the other hand, America absolutely needs to make sure that Trump does not get another term as president. What do we do if the former makes the latter more likely? I have no clue how to get out of this potential conflict between our legal and political realities.
美国绝对需要惩罚犯罪者。另一方面，美国绝对需要确保特朗普不会再任总统。如果前者令后者更有可能发生，我们该怎么办？我不知道应该如何摆脱法律和政治现实之间的潜在冲突。
We’re living in a crisis of legitimacy, during which distrust of established power is so virulent that actions by elite actors tend to backfire, no matter how well founded they are.
我们正生活在一场合法性危机中，在此期间，对既有权力的不信任是如此严重，以至于精英行为者的举动往往会适得其反，无论这些行为有多么充分的理由。
My impression is that the F.B.I. had legitimate reasons to do what it did. My guess is it will find some damning documents that will do nothing to weaken Trump’s support. I’m also convinced that, at least for now, it has unintentionally improved Trump’s re-election chances. It has unintentionally made life harder for Trump’s potential primary challengers and motivated his base.
我感觉联邦调查局的所作所为是有正当理由的。我猜测它会找到一些有害的文件，但对削弱特朗普的支持毫无帮助。我还确信，至少就目前而言，它无意中提高了特朗普再次参选总统的机会。无意中让特朗普的潜在初选挑战者处境更加艰难，并激励了特朗普的支持者。
It feels as though we’re walking toward some sort of storm and there’s no honorable way to alter our course.
感觉就像我们正在走向某种风暴，而且没有什么体面的方式来改变航线。