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苏莱曼尼之死:特朗普为何作出“最极端”选择

As Tensions With Iran Escalated, Trump Opted for Most Extreme Measure
苏莱曼尼之死:特朗普为何作出“最极端”选择

WASHINGTON — In the chaotic days leading to the death of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s most powerful commander, top American military officials put the option of killing him — which they viewed as the most extreme response to recent Iranian-led violence in Iraq — on the menu they presented to President Donald Trump.

华盛顿——在伊朗最有权力的指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼(Qassem Soleimani)少将死亡之前的混乱几天里,美国军方高层把杀死他的选项提交给特朗普总统,他们认为这是对最近由伊朗领导、发生在伊拉克的暴力事件最极端的回应。

They didn’t think he would take it. In the wars waged since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Pentagon officials have often offered improbable options to presidents to make other possibilities appear more palatable.

他们本以为特朗普总统不会接受。在2001年9月11日恐怖袭击之后的战争中,五角大楼的官员们常常向总统们提供一些不太可能的选择,以便令其他可能性看上去更易接受。
 

周六,德黑兰,伊朗人抗议对苏莱曼尼少将的暗杀。

After initially rejecting the Soleimani option on Dec. 28 and authorizing airstrikes on an Iranian-backed Shiite militia group instead, a few days later Trump watched, fuming, as television reports showed Iranian-backed attacks on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, according to Defense Department and administration officials.

据国防部和政府官员称,12月28日,特朗普最初拒绝了杀死苏莱曼尼的方案,而是授权对伊朗支持的什叶派民兵组织发动空袭。几天后,特朗普在电视上看到伊朗支持的袭击美国驻巴格达大使馆的画面后,感到非常愤怒。

By late Thursday, the president had gone for the extreme option. Top Pentagon officials were stunned.

周四晚些时候,总统转向了那个极端的选择。五角大楼高层对此大吃一惊。

Trump made the decision, senior officials said Saturday, despite disputes in the administration about the significance of what some officials said was a new stream of intelligence that warned of threats to U.S. embassies, consulates and military personnel in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. Soleimani had just completed a tour of his forces in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, and was planning an “imminent” attack that could claim hundreds of lives, those officials said.

几名高级官员于周六表示,有官员称新一批情报警告美国驻叙利亚、伊拉克和黎巴嫩的大使馆、领事馆和军事人员受到威胁,政府内部对这批情报的重要性存在争议,然而特朗普还是作出了该决定。这些官员说,苏莱曼尼刚刚结束在叙利亚、黎巴嫩和伊拉克部队的视察,正在策划一场可能导致数百人丧生的“迫在眉睫”的袭击。

“Days, weeks,” Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Friday, when asked how imminent any attacks could be, without offering more detail other than to say that new information about unspecified plotting was “clear and unambiguous.”

“几天,几个星期,”周五,被问及袭击的紧迫性时,参谋长联席会议主席马克·A·米莱上将(Mark A. Milley)说。他没有提供更多细节,只是说有关这起未指明阴谋的新信息“清晰明确”。

But some officials voiced private skepticism about the rationale for a strike on Soleimani, who was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American troops over the years. According to one U.S. official, the new intelligence indicated “a normal Monday in the Middle East” — Dec. 30 — and Soleimani’s travels amounted to “business as usual.”

但一些官员私下对袭击苏莱曼尼的理由表示怀疑。多年来,苏莱曼尼导致了数百名美军士兵死亡。据一名美国官员说,新的情报显示,12月30日是“中东一个正常的周一”,苏莱曼尼的旅行相当于“正常行动”。

That official described the intelligence as thin and said that Soleimani’s attack was not imminent because of communications the U.S. had between Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Soleimani showing that the ayatollah had not yet approved any plans by the general for an attack. The ayatollah, according to the communications, had asked Soleimani to come to Tehran for further discussions at least a week before his death.

这名官员称情报很薄弱,并表示苏莱曼尼的袭击不会马上发生,因为美国掌握的伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)与苏莱曼尼之间的通信表明,哈梅内伊尚未批准任何苏莱曼尼的袭击计划。根据通讯内容,哈梅内伊在苏莱曼尼死前至少一周曾要求他前往德黑兰进行进一步讨论。

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Vice President Mike Pence were two of the most hawkish voices arguing for a response to Iranian aggression, according to administration officials. Pence’s office helped ride herd on meetings and conference calls held by officials in the run-up to the strike.

据政府官员称,国务卿迈克·庞皮欧(Mike Pompeo)和副总统迈克·彭斯(Mike Pence)是主张对伊朗的好斗行为作出回应态度最强硬的两个人。彭斯的办公室帮助组织了袭击预备阶段的官员会议和电话会议。

Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper and Milley declined to comment for this article, but Milley’s spokeswoman, Col. DeDe Halfhill, said, without elaborating, that “some of the characterizations being asserted by other sources are false” and that she would not discuss conversations between Milley and the president.

美国国防部长马克·T·埃斯珀(Mark T. Esper)和米莱拒绝就本文置评,米莱的发言人黛德·哈夫希尔上校(Col. DeDe Halfhill)表示,“其他消息来源的一些描述是错误的”,但她未予以详细说明,而且说她不会谈论米莱和总统之间的谈话。

The fallout from Trump’s targeted killing is now underway. On Saturday in Iraq, the U.S. military was on alert as tens of thousands of pro-Iranian fighters marched through the streets of Baghdad and calls accelerated to eject the U.S. from the country. U.S. Central Command, which oversees American military operations in the Middle East, said there were two rocket attacks near Iraqi bases that host American troops, but no one was injured.

特朗普“定点清除”行动的余波正在展现。周六在伊拉克,美军处于戒备状态,与此同时,数万名亲伊朗武装分子在巴格达街头游行,要求将美国驱逐出境的呼声日益高涨。负责监督美国在中东军事行动的美国中央司令部(U.S. Central Command)表示,美军驻扎的伊拉克基地附近发生了两起火箭弹袭击,但没有人受伤。

In Iran, the ayatollah vowed “forceful revenge” as the country mourned the death of Soleimani.

在伊朗,哈梅内伊誓言要“采取强有力的报复行动”,全国都在为苏莱曼尼的死亡哀悼。

In Palm Beach, Florida, Trump lashed back, promising to strike 52 sites across Iran — representing the number of American hostages taken by Iran in 1979 — if Iran attacked Americans or American interests. On Saturday night, Trump warned on Twitter that some sites were “at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD.”

在佛罗里达州棕榈滩,特朗普回击说,如果伊朗攻击美国人或损害美国人的利益,他将袭击伊朗全国52处地点,这是1979年被伊朗劫持的美国人质数量。周六晚上,特朗普在Twitter上警告,一些地点“对伊朗和伊朗文化非常重要,有非常高的价值,这些目标以及伊朗本身,将遭到非常迅速和沉重的打击”。

The president issued those warnings after U.S. spy agencies Saturday detected that Iranian ballistic missile units across the country had gone to a heightened state of readiness, a U.S. official said Saturday night.

一名美国官员周六晚表示,在美国间谍机构周六发现伊朗境内的弹道导弹部队已进入高度准备状态后,总统发布了这些警告。

Other officials said it was unclear whether Iran was dispersing its ballistic missile units — the heart of the Iranian military — to avoid an American attack or was mobilizing the units for a major strike against U.S. targets or allies in the region in retaliation for Soleimani’s death.

其他官员表示,目前尚不清楚伊朗是否正在分散其弹道导弹部队——伊朗军队的心脏——以避免美国发动袭击,或是正在调动这些部队对该地区的美国目标或盟友进行重点打击,为苏莱曼尼复仇。

Administration officials insisted they did not anticipate sweeping retaliation from Iran, in part because of divisions in the Iranian leadership. But Trump’s two predecessors — Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama — had rejected killing Soleimani as too provocative.

政府官员坚称,他们预计伊朗不会进行全面的报复,部分原因是伊朗领导层存在分歧。但是特朗普的两个前任总统乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)和巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)都曾拒绝杀死苏莱曼尼,认为此举过于挑衅。

Soleimani had been in Trump’s sights since the beginning of the administration, although it was a Dec. 27 rocket attack on an Iraqi military base outside Kirkuk, which left an American civilian contractor dead, that set the killing in motion.

自本届政府组建之初,苏莱曼尼就一直在特朗普的视线范围内,然而直到12月27日,对基尔库克外的伊拉克军事基地的火箭弹袭击致使一名美国平民承包商丧生后,将其击毙的想法才开始付诸行动。

Milley and Esper traveled Sunday to Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Palm Beach resort, a day after officials presented the president with an initial list of options for how to deal with escalating violence against U.S. targets in Iraq.

米莱和埃斯珀周日前往特朗普的棕榈滩度假地马阿拉歌庄园(Mar-a-Lago)。鉴于伊拉克境内美国目标遭到日渐加剧的暴力侵袭,一天前,官员们就可选的对策向总统提交了一份初步清单。

The options included strikes on Iranian ships or missile facilities or against Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq. The Pentagon also tacked on the choice of targeting Soleimani, mainly to make other options seem reasonable.

这些选项包括袭击伊朗的船只或导弹设施,还有伊拉克境内受伊朗支持的武装组织。五角大楼还增加了针对苏莱曼尼的选项,主要是为了使其他选项看上去合理。

Trump chose strikes against militia groups. On Sunday, the Pentagon announced that airstrikes approved by the president had struck three locations in Iraq and two in Syria controlled by the group, Kataib Hezbollah.

特朗普选择了对民兵组织发动袭击。五角大楼周日宣布,总统批准的空袭袭击了真主旅(Kataib Hezbollah)控制的三个伊拉克境内地点以及两个叙利亚境内地点。

Jonathan Hoffman, the chief Pentagon spokesman, said the targets included weapons storage facilities and command posts used to attack American and partner forces. About two dozen militia fighters were killed.

五角大楼首席发言人乔纳森·霍夫曼(Jonathan Hoffman)表示,目标包括武器库和用于攻击美国和伙伴部队的指挥所。大约有二十多名武装组织成员丧生。

“These were on remote sites,” Milley told reporters Friday in his Pentagon office. “There was no collateral damage.”

“这些都是在偏远地区,”米莱周五在五角大楼办公室告诉记者。“没有附带损害。”

But the Iranians viewed the strikes as out of proportion to their attack on the Iraqi base, and Iraqis — largely members of Iranian-backed militias — staged violent protests outside the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. Trump, who aides said had on his mind the specter of the 2012 attacks on the U.S. compound in Benghazi, Libya, became increasingly angry as he watched television images of pro-Iranian demonstrators storming the embassy. Aides said he worried that no response would look weak after repeated threats by the U.S.

但伊朗人认为,此次打击是对他们攻击伊拉克基地以及伊拉克人——主要是伊朗支持的武装组织——在美国驻巴格达大使馆外发动的暴力抗议活动的过度回应。特朗普的助手们说,2012年利比亚班加西美国机构遇袭事件始终萦绕在他脑中,当他在电视上看到亲伊朗示威者冲进大使馆的图像时,他变得越来越愤怒。助手们说,他担心在美国发出连续威胁后,不采取回应将会显得软弱。

When Trump chose the option of killing Soleimani, top military officials, flabbergasted, were immediately alarmed about the prospect of Iranian retaliatory strikes on U.S. troops in the region. It is unclear if Milley or Esper pushed back on the president’s decision.

当特朗普选择杀死苏莱曼尼的选项时,目瞪口呆的高级军事官员立即开始担心伊朗在该地区对美军进行报复性打击的可能性。目前尚不清楚米莱或埃斯珀是否对总统的决定进行了阻拦。

Over the next several days, the military’s Special Operations Command looked for an opportunity to hit Soleimani, who operated in the open and was treated like a celebrity in many places he visited in the Middle East. Military and intelligence officials said the strike drew on information from secret informants, electronic intercepts, reconnaissance aircraft and other surveillance tools.

在接下来的几天中,军方特种作战司令部寻求机会打击苏莱曼尼,苏莱曼尼的行动是公开的,在他访问过的中东许多地方都被视为名人。军事和情报官员说,这次袭击利用了秘密线人情报、电子拦截、侦察机和其他监视工具提供的信息。

The option that was eventually approved depended on who would greet Soleimani at his expected arrival Friday at Baghdad International Airport. If he was met by Iraqi government officials allied with Americans, one U.S. official said, the strike would be called off. But the official said it was a “clean party,” meaning members of Kataib Hezbollah, including its leader, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Trump authorized the killing at about 5 p.m. on Thursday, officials said.

这个最终被批准的选项,还取决于谁会在周五苏莱曼尼到达巴格达机场时迎接他。一位美国官员说,如果是与美国结盟的伊拉克政府官员迎接,袭击将被取消。但该官员说,接机人员均为真主旅成员,包括其领导人阿布·马赫迪·穆罕迪斯(Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis)。官员称,特朗普于周四约下午5点批准了袭击行动。

On Friday, missiles fired from an American MQ-9 Reaper blew up Soleimani’s convoy as it departed the airport.

星期五,就在苏莱曼尼离开机场时,一架美国MQ-9“收割者”无人机发射导弹炸毁了他的车队。
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