好英语网刺杀苏莱曼尼的危险后果
Americans would be wise to brace for war with Iran.
美国最好为与伊朗的战争做好准备。
Full-scale conflict is not a certainty, but the probability is higher than at any point in decades. Despite President Trump’s oft-professed desire to avoid war with Iran and withdraw from military entanglements in the Middle East, his decision to order the killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran’s second most important official, as well as Iraqi leaders of an Iranian-backed militia, now locks our two countries in a dangerous escalatory cycle that will likely lead to wider warfare.
全面冲突并不一定会发生，但它的可能性比几十年来的任何时候都要高。尽管特朗普总统经常公开表示想要避免与伊朗开战并退出中东的军事纷争，但他下令击毙伊朗二号人物卡西姆·苏莱曼尼(Qassim Suleimani)少将以及伊朗支持的武装组织的伊拉克领导人，结果把我们两个国家锁定在一个危险升级的轨道上，很可能导致更广泛的战争。
周三，一名美国陆军第82空降师的伞兵准备离开北卡罗来纳州布拉格堡。
How did we get here? What are the consequences of these targeted killings? Can we avoid a worse-case scenario?
我们是怎么走到这一步的？这些定点击杀行动的后果是什么？我们可以避免更坏的情况吗？
The escalatory cycle began in May 2018, when President Trump recklessly ignored the advice of his national security team and the opposition of our allies in unilaterally withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal — despite Iran’s full adherence to its terms and its efficacy in rolling back Iran’s nuclear program. Since then, the Trump administration has had no coherent strategy to constrain Iran’s program or to counter other aspects of its nefarious behavior.
危险升级始于2018年5月，当时特朗普总统无视他的国家安全团队的建议，且置我们盟国的反对于不顾，单方面撤出伊朗核协议——尽管伊朗完全遵守其条款并有效遏制了伊朗核问题。从那以后，特朗普政府一直没有拿出有条理的策略来约束伊朗问题，或应对它的邪恶行为的其他方面。
Mr. Trump’s “maximum pressure campaign” to impose ever more debilitating economic sanctions did not force Iran to capitulate; instead, predictably, it induced Tehran to lash out with a series of increasingly bold military provocations against Sunni Arab and Western targets while restarting important aspects of its nuclear program. Iran’s destabilizing activities in the region, notably in Syria, Yemen and Lebanon, have only intensified. At the same time, it has conducted a brutal crackdown on its civilian population. None of the Trump administration’s stated objectives have been met; if anything, the United States’ security and strategic positions in the region have weakened.
特朗普的“最大施压行动”采用了越来越多削弱经济的制裁，这并未使伊朗屈服；相反，可以预见的是，它促使德黑兰重新启动了其核计划的重要部分，同时对逊尼派阿拉伯人和西方目标进行了一系列日益大胆的军事挑衅。伊朗在该地区，特别是叙利亚、也门和黎巴嫩的破坏稳定活动更是加剧。同时，它对该地区平民进行了野蛮镇压。特朗普政府的既定目标无一实现；要说变化，美国在该地区的安全和战略地位已经变弱。
In deciding to eliminate General Suleimani, Mr. Trump and his team argue they were acting in self-defense to thwart imminent attacks on Americans in Iraq and the region. This may be true, as General Suleimani was a ruthless murderer and terrorist with much American blood on his hands. Unfortunately, it’s hard to place confidence in the representations of an administration that lies almost daily about matters large and small and, even in this critical instance, failed to brief, much less consult, bipartisan leaders in Congress.
对于除掉苏莱曼尼将军的决定，特朗普和他的团队辩称，他们是在自卫，以制止即将对身在伊拉克和该地区的美国人发起的袭击。这可能是事实，因为苏莱曼尼将军是一个残酷的杀人犯和恐怖分子，手上粘着许多美国人的血。不幸的是，面对一个几乎每天都要在大大小小的问题上说谎的政府，他们给出的说法很难让人放心，而且，即使在这个关键时刻，本届政府也未能向国会的的两党领袖通报情况，更不用说征求意见了。
Second, even if the killing of General Suleimani is justified by self-defense, it doesn’t make it strategically wise. Given the demonstrably haphazard and shortsighted nature of the Trump administration’s national security decision-making process (including calling off strikes against Iran 10 minutes before impact, inviting the Taliban to Camp David and abandoning the Kurds), it’s doubtful the administration spent much time gaming out the second and third order consequences of their action or preparing to protect American military and diplomatic personnel in the region.
其次，即使击毙苏莱曼尼是自卫的理由成立，它在战略上也并不明智。鉴于特朗普政府的国家安全决策过程具有明显的草率和短视的特点（包括距离对伊朗实施打击还有10分钟时取消行动，邀请塔利班前往戴维营和抛弃库尔德人），令人怀疑政府是否花时间考虑过他们行为带来的第二、第三重后果，或准备好保护该地区的美国军方和外交人员。
To assess the fallout of killing General Suleimani, we must understand that the Iranian regime cannot survive internal dissent or sustain its powerful position in the region if it backs down from this provocation. For Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a strong response is essential. For the United States, the question is: What form will it take and how quickly will it come? One thing is clear: Americans are not safer, as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo argued on Fox News the morning after. Rather, American citizens are at greater risk of attack across a far wider battlefield than before.
为了评估杀害苏莱曼尼将军的后果，我们必须了解，如果伊朗在这次挑衅面前退却，伊朗政权将无法承受内部的分歧或维持在该地区的强大地位。对于伊朗最高领导人阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)来说，做出强有力的回应至关重要。对于美国，问题则是：这种回应将以多快的速度和怎样的形式出现？有一件事是明确的：正如次日早上迈克·庞皮欧(Mike Pompeo)在福克斯新闻(Fox News)上所说，美国人并不会因此而更安全。相反，与以往相比，美国公民正在更广阔的战场上面对更多遭到攻击的危险。
Start with Iraq. The State Department has warned American citizens not to travel there. Iranian-backed militias have attacked United States and allied installations, and can continue to do so around the country. The government in Baghdad has declared the killing a violation of the terms of the American military presence in Iraq. We will face mounting pressure to withdraw our military and diplomatic personnel from the country. If we leave, the United States will suffer a major strategic defeat: Iran will justifiably claim victory, and the gains of the fight against ISIS will be lost as the terrorist group rebuilds.
首先就是伊拉克。国务院已警告美国公民不要前往该国。伊朗支持的武装组织已袭击了美国及其盟国的设施，并且可以继续在全国范围内发起攻击。巴格达政府已宣布击杀行动违背了美国在伊拉克军事存在的约定。我们将面对越来越大的压力，要求从该国撤出我们的军事和外交人员。如果我们离开，美国将遭受重大战略挫败：伊朗将有理由宣布胜利，随着恐怖组织的重建，与ISIS斗争的成果也将丢失。
There is no hope now to revive, much less strengthen, the Iran nuclear deal, and we must expect Iran will accelerate its efforts to revive its nuclear program without constraint.
现在已经没有希望恢复——更不用说加强——伊朗的核协议了，并且我们肯定会看到伊朗将加紧努力，不受限制地恢复其核计划。
The global economy is imperiled, as the Gulf States’ energy infrastructure faces the risk of an Iranian attack, and commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the larger Gulf region is threatened.
由于海湾国家的能源基础设施面临遭受伊朗袭击的危险，并且通过霍尔木兹海峡和整个海湾地区的商业运输受到威胁，全球经济已经被置于险境。
United States military, diplomatic and commercial operations as well as civilian targets throughout the Middle East are in range of both Iranian missiles and terrorist cells. From Afghanistan and Europe to Africa and Latin America, Iranian proxies — once latent — can stage asymmetric attacks against American and allied targets without warning. Even in the United States, we have reason to fear that terrorist sleeper cells could be activated. Worse, we face these threats now substantially alone, as the Trump administration apparently neglected to consult or even warn our key allies and partners about the impending risks to their interests that result from killing General Suleimani.
美国的军事、外交和商业行动以及整个中东的平民目标都在伊朗导弹和恐怖组织的打击范围内。从阿富汗和欧洲到非洲和拉丁美洲，（原本潜伏着的）伊朗代理人可以在不发出警告的情况下对美国和盟军目标发动非对称攻击。甚至在美国，我们也有理由担心恐怖分子的潜伏力量被激活。更糟糕的是，我们现在基本上是单打独斗，因为特朗普总统显然没有咨询甚至警告我们的主要盟友和伙伴，杀死苏莱曼尼将军会给他们的利益带来怎样的潜在风险。
In the face of Iranian reprisals, it will be difficult for the United States to de-escalate tensions and avoid a larger conflict. Iran gets the next move. The United States has failed to deter Tehran thus far, even with the deployment of 14,000 additional American troops to the Gulf region since May. The announcement this week that the Pentagon was sending 3,500 more soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division seems unlikely to change things.
面对伊朗的报复，美国将难以缓解紧张局势并避免更大的冲突发生。下一步要看伊朗的。到目前为止，尽管美国自5月以来向海湾地区增派了1.4万人的部队，但仍未能威慑德黑兰。五角大楼本周宣布从第82空降师中再派出3500名士兵，这似乎不太可能带来什么改变。
When Iran does respond, its response will likely be multifaceted and occur at unpredictable times and in multiple places. President Trump will then face what may yet be the most consequential national security decision of his presidency. If he reacts with additional force, the risk is great that the confrontation will spiral into a wider military conflict. If he fails to react in kind, he will likely invite escalating Iranian aggression.
当伊朗真正做出回应时，可能会是多方面的，并且会在不可预测的时间和多个地方发生。然后，特朗普总统会面临总统任期内影响最重大的国家安全决定。如果他用更多的武力反击，对抗演变成更广泛的军事冲突的风险是巨大的。如果他不做出类似的反应，他很可能会招致伊朗不断升级的进犯。
It’s hard to envision how this ends short of war.
难以想象这样的局势不是以战争告终。