好英语网在伊朗，特朗普的恐吓又一次失败了
International crises often lead, at least initially, to surging support for a country’s leadership. And that’s clearly happening now. Just weeks ago the nation’s leader faced public discontent so intense that his grip on power seemed at risk. Now the assassination of Qassim Suleimani has transformed the situation, generating a wave of patriotism that has greatly bolstered the people in charge.
国际危机通常会导致对国家领导人的支持激增，至少一开始是如此。这种事显然正在发生。就在几周前，这个国家的领导人还面临着公众的强烈不满，以至于他对权力的掌控似乎处于危险之中。如今，卡西姆·苏莱曼尼(Qassim Suleimani)的遇刺改变了局势，激起了一股爱国主义浪潮，极大地鼓舞了掌权者。
Unfortunately, this patriotic rallying around the flag is happening not in America, where many are (with good reason) deeply suspicious of Donald Trump’s motives, but in Iran.
不幸的是，这种危难之际团结爱国的场面并不是发生在美国，而是发生在伊朗。在美国则有许多人对唐纳德·特朗普的动机深感怀疑，他们是有充分理由的。
特朗普总统不明白，其他国家不会按照他的意愿作出反应。
In other words, Trump’s latest attempt to bully another country has backfired — just like all his previous attempts.
换句话说，特朗普最近霸凌另一个国家的企图适得其反——就像他之前的所有事情一样。
From his first days in office, Trump has acted on the apparent belief that he could easily intimidate foreign governments — that they would quickly fold and allow themselves to be humiliated. That is, he imagined that he faced a world of Lindsey Grahams, willing to abandon all dignity at the first hint of a challenge.
从上任第一天起，特朗普的所作所为就是基于这样一个显然的信念：他可以轻易恐吓外国政府——他们会很快屈服，任凭他蒙羞。也就是说，他想象自己面对的是一个林赛·格雷厄姆(Lindsey Grahams)的世界，只要稍微遇到点挑战就愿意放弃一切尊严。
But this strategy keeps failing; the regimes he threatens are strengthened rather than weakened, and Trump is the one who ends up making humiliating concessions.
但这种策略一直失败；他所威胁的政权得以加强，而不是遭到削弱，最终做出丢人现眼的让步的是特朗普自己。
Remember, for example, when Trump promised “fire and fury” unless North Korea halted its nuclear weapons program? He claimed triumph after a 2018 summit meeting with Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader. But Kim made no real concessions, and North Korea recently announced that it might resume tests of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles.
还记得特朗普承诺，如果朝鲜不停止其核武器计划，就要施以“炮火与怒火”吗？2018年，他与朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)举行峰会后宣布自己获胜。但金正恩并没有做出真正的让步，朝鲜最近宣布可能会重新进行核武器和远程导弹试验。
Why does Trump’s international strategy, which might be described as winning through intimidation, keep failing? And why does he keep pursuing it anyway?
为什么特朗普的这种可谓以恐吓取胜的国际战略总是失败？为什么他还要继续坚持这个战略呢？
One answer, I suspect, is that like all too many Americans, Trump has a hard time grasping the fact that other countries are real — that is, that we’re not the only country whose citizens would rather pay a heavy price, in money and even in blood, than make what they see as humiliating concessions.
我怀疑，其中一个答案是，和很多美国人一样，特朗普很难理解，其他国家也是真实存在的——我们国家的公民宁愿付出高昂的代价，无论是金钱还是生命，也不愿看到国家做出在他们心目中非常耻辱的让步，但我们不是唯一一个这样的国家。
Ask yourself, how would Americans have reacted if a foreign power had assassinated Dick Cheney, claiming that he had the blood of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis on his hands? Don’t answer that Suleimani was worse. That’s beside the point. The point is that we don’t accept the right of foreign governments to kill our officials. Why imagine that other countries are different?
扪心自问，如果一个外国势力暗杀了迪克·切尼(Dick Cheney)，声称他手上沾有成千上万伊拉克人的鲜血，美国人会作何反应？不要说苏莱曼尼更糟。那不是重点。关键是我们不能接受外国政府有权杀害我们的官员。为什么会觉得其他国家和我们不一样呢？
Of course, we have many people in the diplomatic corps with a deep knowledge of other nations and their motivations, who understand the limits of intimidation. But anyone with that kind of understanding has been excluded from Trump’s inner circle.
当然，我们的外交人员中，有许多人对其他国家及其动机有着深刻的了解，他们明白，恐吓的限度在什么地方。但是任何有这种见识的人都被排除在特朗普的核心圈子之外。
Now, it’s true that for many years America did have a special leadership position, one that sometimes involved playing a role in reshaping other countries’ political systems. But here’s where Trump’s second error comes in: He has never shown any sign of understanding why America used to be special.
的确，多年来，美国的确拥有特殊的领导地位，有时还参与重塑其他国家的政治体系。但这就是特朗普的第二个错误：没有任何迹象表明，他理解美国为什么曾经如此特别。
Part of the explanation, of course, was raw economic and military power: America used to be just much bigger than everyone else. That is, however, no longer true. For example, by some key measures China’s economy is significantly bigger than that of the United States.
当然，部分原因是美国纯粹的经济和军事实力：美国曾经比其他国家强大得多。然而，这已不再是事实。例如，以一些关键指标衡量，中国的经济规模明显大于美国。
Even more important, however, was the fact that America was something more than a big country throwing its weight around. We always stood for something larger.
然而，更重要的是，美国并非只是一个到处发号施令的大国。我们一直在捍卫的是某种更大的东西。
That doesn’t mean that we were always a force for good; America did many terrible things during its reign as global hegemon. But we clearly stood for global rule of law, for a system that imposed common rules on everyone, ourselves included. The United States may have been the dominant partner in alliances like NATO and bodies like the World Trade Organization, but we always tried to behave as no more than first among equals.
这并不意味着我们一直是一股正义的力量；美国在其拥有全球霸权期间做了许多可怕的事情。但我们明确支持全球法治，支持一个对包括我们自身在内的所有人施以共同规则的体系。在北约等联盟和世界贸易组织等机构中，美国可能一直是发挥主导作用的合作伙伴，但我们总是试图表现得与其他国家平起平坐。
Oh, and because we were committed to enforcing rules, we were also relatively trustworthy; an alliance with America was meaningful, because we weren’t the kind of country that would betray an ally for the sake of short-term political convenience.
哦对了，由于我们致力于执行规则，我们也会相对值得信赖；与美国结盟是有意义的，因为我们不是那种为了短期政治便利而背叛盟友的国家。
Trump, however, has turned his back on everything that used to make America great. Under his leadership, we’ve become nothing more than a big, self-interested bully — a bully with delusions of grandeur, who isn’t nearly as tough as he thinks. We abruptly abandon allies like the Kurds; we honor war criminals; we slap punitive tariffs on friendly nations like Canada for no good reason. And, of course, after more than 15,000 lies, nothing our leader and his minions say can be trusted.
然而，特朗普却抛弃了所有曾经让美国伟大的东西。在他的领导下，我们变成了一个自私自利的大恶霸——一个有着宏大妄想的恶霸，但其实远没有他想象的那么强悍。我们突然抛弃了库尔德人这样的盟友；我们尊敬战犯；我们无缘无故对加拿大这样的友好国家征收惩罚性关税。当然还有，在撒了15000个谎之后，我们的领导人和他的下属所说的一切都是不可信的。
Trump officials seem taken aback by the uniformly negative consequences of the Suleimani killing: The Iranian regime is empowered, Iraq has turned hostile and nobody has stepped up in our support. But that’s what happens when you betray all your friends and squander all your credibility.
特朗普的官员们似乎对苏莱曼尼被杀带来的一边倒的负面后果感到吃惊：伊朗政权声威大震，伊拉克转向敌对，没有人站出来支持我们。但是，背叛自己所有的朋友，挥霍自己所有的信誉，就是会导致这样的后果。