风险拨备率怎么算

风险拨备率是金融领域中一个重要的概念，它对于评估银行或金融机构的风险抵御能力和财务健康状况具有关键意义。

首先，我们来了解一下风险拨备率的基本概念。风险拨备率，也称为拨备覆盖率，是贷款损失准备对不良贷款的比率，主要反映商业银行对贷款损失的弥补能力和对贷款风险的防范能力。

那么，风险拨备率是如何计算的呢？常见的计算公式为：拨备覆盖率 = （一般准备 + 专项准备 + 特种准备） / （次级类贷款 + 可疑类贷款 + 损失类贷款）× 100% 。

举例来说，假设有一家银行，其贷款余额为 100 亿，其中正常类 90 亿，关注类 2 亿，次级类 5 亿，可疑类 2 亿，损失类 1 亿。首先计算不良贷款率，即（5 + 2 + 1）/ 100 = 8% 。按照现行规定，应当计提贷款一般损失准备金 = 100 * 1% = 1 亿，然后按照规定比例应计提专项贷款损失准备：2 * 2% + 5 * 30% + 2 * 60% + 1 * 100% = 3.74 亿。加上一般准备，准备金总额应当达到 4.29 亿元。假设这家银行真的按规定计提了 4.29 亿元，则拨备覆盖率为 4.29 / (5 + 2 + 1) = 53.63% 。如果计提了 8 亿，则拨备覆盖率为 100% ；反之，如果仅计提了 4 亿，则拨备覆盖率为 50% ，且达不到按比例计提的最低要求，拨备严重不足。

需要注意的是，风险拨备率的计算并非一成不变，还存在一些特殊情况和局限性。例如，通过一个极端的例子可以看出，假设有三家银行其不良贷款率都是 5% ，但是 A 银行的不良贷款全部为损失类，B 银行的不良贷款全部为可疑类，C 银行则全部为次级类。如果按照标准法对不同类别的贷款计提相应比例的减值准备（损失类按 100% 计提，可疑类按 50% 计提，次级类按 25% 计提，正常贷款按 1% 计提），则通过计算可以看出，三家银行的拨备覆盖率分别为 119% 、69% 和 44% ，A 银行的拨备覆盖率水平最高，但是并不能反映 A 银行具有最好的资产质量和最强的信用风险防御能力。

此外，在计算风险拨备率时，还有其他方法，如迁徙率法和滚动率法。迁徙率法通过观察前期逾期金额落入下一期的几率来计算，滚动率则是指定区间内迁移率的乘积。

总之，准确计算和理解风险拨备率对于评估金融机构的风险状况至关重要，但在实际应用中需要综合考虑各种因素和可能存在的局限性。

How to Calculate the Risk Provision Ratio

The risk provision ratio is an important concept in the financial field, which is crucial for evaluating the risk resilience and financial health of banks or financial institutions.

Firstly, let's understand the basic concept of the risk provision ratio. The risk provision ratio, also known as the provision coverage ratio, is the ratio of loan loss provisions to non-performing loans, mainly reflecting the ability of commercial banks to compensate for loan losses and prevent loan risks.

Then, how is the risk provision ratio calculated? The common calculation formula is: Provision coverage ratio = (General provisions + Special provisions + Special provisions) / (Subprime loans + Doubtful loans + Loss loans) × 100%.

For example, suppose there is a bank with a loan balance of 10 billion, of which 9 billion is normal, 0.2 billion is concerned, 0.5 billion is subprime, 0.2 billion is doubtful, and 0.1 billion is loss. First, calculate the non-performing loan ratio, which is (0.5 + 0.2 + 0.1) / 10 = 8%. According to the current regulations, the general loan loss reserve should be accrued = 10 * 1% = 0.1 billion, and then the special loan loss reserve should be accrued according to the prescribed ratio: 0.2 * 2% + 0.5 * 30% + 0.2 * 60% + 0.1 * 100% = 0.374 billion. Adding the general reserve, the total reserve amount should reach 0.429 billion. Suppose this bank really accrued 0.429 billion as stipulated, then the provision coverage ratio is 0.429 / (0.5 + 0.2 + 0.1) = 53.63%. If 0.8 billion is accrued, the provision coverage ratio is 100%; conversely, if only 0.4 billion is accrued, the provision coverage ratio is 50%, and it fails to meet the minimum requirement of the proportional accrual, and the provision is seriously insufficient.

It should be noted that the calculation of the risk provision ratio is not static, and there are some special cases and limitations. For example, through an extreme example, it can be seen that if there are three banks with a non-performing loan ratio of 5%, but all the non-performing loans of Bank A are loss loans, all the non-performing loans of Bank B are doubtful loans, and all the non-performing loans of Bank C are subprime loans. If the corresponding proportion of impairment provisions is accrued for different types of loans according to the standard method (100% for loss loans, 50% for doubtful loans, 25% for subprime loans, and 1% for normal loans), then it can be seen through calculation that the provision coverage ratios of the three banks are 119%, 69%, and 44% respectively. Although the provision coverage ratio of Bank A is the highest, it does not reflect that Bank A has the best asset quality and the strongest credit risk defense ability.

In addition, when calculating the risk provision ratio, there are other methods, such as the migration rate method and the roll rate method. The migration rate method is calculated by observing the probability of the previous overdue amount falling into the next period, and the roll rate is the product of the migration rates within the specified interval.

In conclusion, accurately calculating and understanding the risk provision ratio is crucial for evaluating the risk status of financial institutions, but various factors and possible limitations need to be comprehensively considered in practical applications.