好英语网日本狼的神秘发现与灭绝物种的判定悖论
Hiroshi Yagi was driving through the Chichibu Tama Kai National Park when the animal came up from the stream on his left, passed in front of him and stopped about two metres (6.5ft) away from his car. It showed no fear as he edged towards it, firing off several photographs. The creature was apparently unfazed by the presence of a human. Either it was comfortable being around humans, or felt unthreatened because of its status as the apex predator in this habitat.
亚吉（Hiroshi Yagi）开车穿过秩父多摩甲斐国立公园(Chichuibu Tama Kai National Park)时，这只动物从他左边的小溪方向走了出来，从他前面经过，在离他的车两米远的地方停了下来。亚吉侧身朝它走去，拍了几张照片，牠一点也不害怕。这只动物显然对人类的存在无动于衷。要么是牠在人类身边很舒服，要么因为牠是这个栖息地的顶级捕食者而感受不到威胁。
“This was 23 years ago, and I didn’t have much technical knowledge then,” says Yagi. “But I thought, ‘This must be a wolf’.”
亚吉说：“那是23年前的事了，当时我并没有多少专业知识。但我想，这一定是一只狼。”
Yagi, a keen mountaineer, spends a lot of time in the mountains around Chichibu in central Japan, but this was the first time he had come face to face with an animal he had spent the best part of his life searching for.
亚吉是一位登山爱好者，在日本中部秩父（Chichibu）附近的山里度过很多时间，但这是他第一次与自己寻找大半生的动物面对面。
“I decided I would try and give him an osenbei (a rice cracker) and put out my hand and offered it to him,” says Yagi. “I am right-handed, so I offered the cracker to him in my left, thinking that even if he bit my left arm, I would be alright."
亚吉说：“我决定试着给它一个奥森贝（osenbei一种大米饼干)，然后伸手递给牠。我习惯于用右手，所以我把饼干放在左边，认为即使牠咬我的左臂，我也不怕。”
“He was right in front of me at this point. I had brought the rice cracker right under his mouth. But he didn’t take it. He just stood there. I tried to see if he smelled like a wild animal, but he didn’t. He had no smell. And just like a new-born baby, he had no knowledge or fear of danger.”
“牠就在我前面，我把米饼放在牠的嘴下，牠没有接受，只是站在那里。我闻了一下，看牠是否有野兽的气味，但牠没有气味。牠像孩童一样，既不知道危险也不害怕。”
Wolves have been extinct in Japan for at least 100 years, according to scientific records. The last known Japanese wolf remains were bought by a zoologist in 1905 who sent the pelt to the Natural History Museum, London.
据记载，日本狼已经灭绝了至少100年。已知的最后一具日本狼遗骸1905年被一位动物学家买下，并送到了伦敦自然历史博物馆。
The discoveries of bones, fur and scat, which all appear to date from before 1905, makes the likelihood that Yagi saw a living Japanese wolf that October night seem remote. Why was Yagi so convinced that he had encountered a wolf? Because he, like many other people in rural Japan, it would transpire, had heard the telltale sign of wolves in the night many years earlier.
一些狼的骨头、毛皮和粪便都是1905年以前发现的，这使得亚吉在那个十月的夜晚看到一只存活的日本狼的可能性很小。亚吉为什么这么确信遇到了一只狼？可能同许多日本农村人一样，早在很多年前就听说过狼的踪迹。
Local reports
当地媒体报道
Yagi’s pursuit of the Japanese wolf began about 20 years before his sighting in 1996. He was on night watch duty at a mountain lodge that was owned by a mountaineering group he was part of.
亚吉对日本狼的追踪开始于大约20年前的1996年。他参加的登山队拥有一个山间小屋，他在那里值夜班。
“It was then when I heard a howl,” says Yagi. “I knew that the Japanese wolf had been declared extinct since the Meji era [which ended in 1912], but I thought, ‘An animal that doesn’t exist can’t howl’.” And so began his 50-year search for the Japanese wolf.
亚吉说：“就在那时，我听到一声嚎叫。我知道日本狼在明治时代(1912年结束)就被宣布灭绝了，但我想，不存在的动物就不会嚎叫。”于是他开始了对日本狼长达50年的搜寻。
The photographs he captured on that night as he crept to within an arm’s length of what could have been a living relic ignited the imaginations of local Chichibu residents after they were examined by a prominent Japanese zoologist who described the animal as ‘extremely wolf-like’, without conclusively saying the animal was an extinct wolf. While many academics remained sceptical about their existence, some experts concluded that the animals in Yagi’s photos closely resembled the Japanese wolf. The animal became known as the “Chichibu yaken” (or the Chichibu “wild dog”).
那天晚上，他悄悄走到可能有活着动物的遗迹处，拍到了一些照片。这些照片公布后点燃了秩父当地居民的想象力，一位著名的日本动物学家对这些照片进行了查看，称其为“极像狼的动物”，但没有确切说这就是已经灭绝的狼。尽管许多学者对牠的存在表示怀疑，但一些专家得出结论，亚吉照片中的动物与日本狼非常相似。这种动物后来被称为“秩父亚肯”（Chichibu yaken）或秩父“野狗”（Chichibu ‘wild dog’）。
Soon, other Japanese residents began coming forward with similar stories.
不久，其他日本居民也开始讲述类似的故事。
“My mother told me that her friend in Chichibu – a lady in her 50s – claims to have seen a wolf-like animal in her garden back in December,” says Alex Martin, an American-Japanese journalist who has started his own search after hearing Yagi’s story. “There have been numerous accounts of sightings, reports of howling and discoveries of purported wolf bones, droppings and fur that have led some to believe that the animal may still be alive and roaming the mountains of Japan.”
美籍日本记者马丁(Alex Martin)在听到亚吉的故事后说：“我母亲曾告诉我，她在秩父的朋友，一位50多岁的女士，声称去年12月在她的花园里看到了一只类似狼的动物。有很多关于目击到、听到嚎叫和发现所谓的狼骨、粪便、皮毛的报道，这使一些人相信，这种动物可能还存在，在日本山区活动。”
The Japanese wolf is often portrayed in literature and folklore as a “mystical” animal, in the words of Martin. The specific name of the Japanese wolf, hodophilax, translates as “pathway guardian” in reference to the Japanese legend of “okuri-okami”, the "sending wolf" or “escorting wolf” who followed travellers on mountain trails and guarded them during their journey. Other versions of the folklore tell of okuri-okami who attack travellers who fall or who do not act respectfully towards the wolves.
用马丁的话说，日本狼在文学和民间传说中经常被描绘成一种神秘的动物。日本狼的具体名字hodophilax翻译过来就是“道路守护者”，这是根据日本传说中的“奥库里-冈上”（okuri-okami），“送狼”或“护送狼”而来。牠们在山径上跟随旅行者，并在旅途中守护他们。但也有其它版本说“奥库里-冈上”攻击那些跌倒的旅行者或对狼不敬的人。
What is likely is that the legends are borne from the real behaviour of wolves, who might stalk prey for many kilometres before attacking them, giving the impression they are protecting travellers, when in fact they are hunting.
这些传说很可能是源于狼的真实行为，狼在攻击猎物之前会尾随猎物长达数公里，给人一种牠们是在保护旅行者的假象，而实际上牠们是在狩猎。
The Japanese wolf is worshipped in Japan, and is particularly revered in Chichibu where many shrines pay tribute to the animals. One such shrine, Mitsumine Shrine, is said to have been founded by a prince, who after becoming lost in the mists of the Okuchichibu mountain range while on a mission to subdue a warring tribe, was guided to safety by a great white wolf.
日本人崇拜狼，尤其是在秩父市，那里有很多供奉狼的神龛。据说，其中一座名为三峰（Mitsumine Shrine）神社的神殿，是由一位王子建造的，这位王子在执行征服交战部落的任务中，在奥秩父（Okuchichibu）山脉中迷失了方向，后来被一只大白狼带到了安全地带。
Modern Japanese arts and literature also pay reference to the wolves. The animated film Princess Mononoke (1997), which is said to be based on the legend of the Mitsumine Shrine, features a great white wolf goddess that raises a human child called San, played by Yuriko Ishida in Japan and Claire Danes in the English version, who becomes one of the film’s protagonists.
日本现代艺术和文学也借鉴了狼的形象。动画电影《幽灵公主》(1997)，是根据三峰神社的传说改编，其中一位大白狼女神，抚养了一个叫桑（san）的人类孩子,影片由石田百合子（Yuriko Ishida）在日本饰演，丹尼斯（Claire Danes）在英语版本中饰演，成为电影的主角之一。
“Personally, I've discovered that researching this animal involves various aspects – not only science, but folklore, history, religion and much more – things that help paint a vivid picture of how superstition and legends were very much a part of everyday life in pre-modern Japan,” says Martin.
马丁说：“就我个人而言，我发现对这种动物的研究不仅涉及科学，还涉及民俗、历史、宗教等诸多方面，这些都有助于描绘出一幅生动地画面，在前现代日本，迷信和传说是日常生活的一部分。”
The amateur search
业余搜索
Due to the swelling popularity of Yagi’s research, the intrepid researcher is now supported in his search by about 20 other individuals – all amateurs – five or six of whom are regularly active.
由于亚吉的研究越来越受欢迎，这位勇敢的研究者现在得到了20多人的支持，他们都是业余爱好者，其中有5到6个人经常活动。
“When the pictures were made public, many other people came forward to share their stories of wolf cries or sightings,” says Yagi. “It was this kinship, that we were not alone in our belief in what we have seen and heard, that has brought together this search, and now a bit of traction. It has to be this personal connection with the wolf, that inspires this belief in the wolf’s existence. And together we want to bring out the truth.”
亚吉说：“当这些照片被公开时，许多人站出来分享他们听到狼的叫声或目击到狼的故事。正是这种亲缘关系，让我们对所见所闻产生了信心，也促成了这次搜寻，现在又有了新的动力。”这种与狼的个人联系，激发了对狼存在的信念。“我们要一起揭露真相。”
But Yagi acknowledges that the photographs he took 23 years ago are not the definitive proof he needs.
但是亚吉承认，他23年前拍的照片并不能作为确凿证据。
Now, the search is turning to modern technology to help capture further proof, including about 70 motion-sensitive infra-red video cameras set up across the Okuchichibu mountains. About a year ago, they recorded footage of three deer running past one of these camera. At first it seemed little to be excited about, but on closer inspection, Yagi noticed the audio accompanying the images appears to have picked up the sound of a howl.
现在，正利用现代技术，来获取更多的证据，其中包括在奥秩父山脉上安装的70台感应红外线摄像机。大约一年前，录下了三只鹿从其中一台摄像机旁跑过的镜头。一开始看起来没什么可兴奋的，但仔细观察后，亚吉从图面伴随的声音中，似乎听到了狼嚎。
“We brought the recorded howl to a specialist, and he compared it to that of the Eastern wolf that was kept at Asahikawa Zoo in Hokkaido,” says Yagi. “He declared with 99.5% assurance that the two were of the same animal, and I have received a certificate of authenticity for the wolf recording.”
亚吉说：“我们把记录下来的视频拿给一位专家看，他把视频里的声音和北海道旭川（Asahikawa）动物园里饲养的东方狼的嚎叫声进行了比较。他以99.5%的把握宣称，这两种叫声来自同一种动物，而且我已经收到了狼录音真实性的证明。”
“When I first heard the howl 50 years ago, I had told many people that I believed it was the wolf,” says Yagi. “But their logic was that ‘If it doesn’t exist, it can't be’. Whereas I believe in its opposite – if it is, then it exists. And it is this disbelief in other people, its this idea to disprove their logic, that has driven me this far. Sometimes it does seem like the road is still long.”
亚吉说：“50年前，当我第一次听到狼的叫声时，我告诉了许多人，我相信那是狼。但他们的逻辑是，‘如果牠已经不存在了，那么牠就不可能是’。然而我相信牠的存在，如果是，那么牠就存在。正是这种不信任和否定的逻辑，促使我要近一步证明。”“有时候，这条路似乎还很长。”
‘Lazarus’ species
拉撒路（Lazarus）物种
Historically, the IUCN used the "50-year rule" to determine whether a species or subspecies is extinct, although it has now been replaced by a more nuanced species-specific approach, which requires evidence to be collected from targeted surveys across a species' range before extinction can be determined. The reality is that for some species, which are widely tracked and extensively researched, 50 years without observation is an unnecessarily long time.
从历史上看，国际自然保护联盟（IUCN）使用“50年规则”来确定一个物种或亚种是否已经灭绝，虽然它现在被更加细微的物种鉴定方法所取代，但这种方法要求在确定一个物种灭绝之前，从一个物种范围内有针对性的调查中收集证据。事实是，对一些被广泛跟踪和研究的物种来说，需要长达50年在野外没有观测到是不必要的。
For others there might have been so few sightings of the animals in the first place it would be an arbitrarily unfair rule. “No Western scientists have ever seen a wild saola – a beautiful long-horned Asian forest antelope, which is one of the world's rarest mammals,” says Samuel Turvey from the Zoological Society of London’s Institute of Zoology. “Information about its distribution in Vietnam and Laos is based largely on anecdotal reports by local hunters and villagers.” In the case of the saola, a handful of photos are the most that Western scientists have seen, so the 50-year rule is obsolete.
对另外一些很少在实地目睹动物的人来说，这个规定有些武断和不公平。伦敦动物研究所动物学会的特维（Samuel Turvey）说：“西方科学家从未见过野生的索拉（saola）——一种美丽的长角亚洲森林羚羊，是世界上最稀有的哺乳动物之一。关于牠在越南和老挝的分布信息，主要是基于当地猎人和村民的轶事报道。”以索拉为例，少数几张照片是西方科学家所见最多的，所以50年的规则已经过时了。
“In some cases, possibly extinct species might occur in extremely remote and impenetrable landscapes which are rarely visited by researchers, and so their status remains unknown rather than necessarily extinct,” says Turvey. “The complexity of proving extinction is made more difficult by the theoretical challenges that you can't prove a negative... just because you don't find a species, does this just mean that you haven't looked hard enough, or in the right place or at the right time of year, rather than necessarily meaning it no longer exists?”
特维说：“在某些情况下，已经灭绝的物种可能出现在极其遥远和难以到达的地方，研究人员很少去那里，所以牠们的状态仍然未知，而不一定已经灭绝。证明灭绝的复杂性因理论上的挑战而变得更加困难，你不能提供证伪，仅仅因为你没有发现一个物种，这是否意味着你没有在正确的地方或一年中正确的时间足够努力地去寻找，而不一定意味着牠不再存在？”
Turvey warns that in the absence of definite accepted sightings in over a century, the continued survival of the Japanese wolf is unlikely, but not necessarily impossible.
特维警告说，在一个多世纪以来没有确定的可接受的目击事件的情况下，日本狼的继续生存是不太可能的，但也不一定是不可能的。
“Making its survival less likely is the fact that wolves are social animals, which live in groups and make loud howling calls, which would be expected to make them more easily detectable compared to a solitary silent animal if they were still present in a landscape,” says Turvey.
特维说：“狼是群居动物，牠们成群结队地生活在一起，并发出响亮的嚎叫声，这一事实降低了牠们存在的可能性。如果牠们仍然生活在某个地方，那么与孤独、沉默的动物相比，牠们更容易被发现。”
“This brings us onto the sticky issue of data quantity versus data quality. Sightings have been reported which post-date the last ‘definite’ record, but they're unverified and probably unverifiable, so we can't be sure what was actually seen. This is the same confusing situation faced by scientists when trying to determine the possible survival of other ‘officially’ extinct species such as the thylacine and ivory-billed woodpecker.”
他说：“这让我们想到了数据数量与数据质量之间的棘手问题。据报道，目击事件发生在最后一次确定记录的日期之后，但这些目击事件没有得到核实，而且也无法证实究竟看到了什么。这也是科学家们在试图确定其他正式灭绝物种，如袋狼（thylacine）和象牙喙啄木鸟（ivory-billed woodpecker）的生存可能性时，所面临的同样令人困惑的情况。”
Some enthusiasts still believe that the thylacine, more commonly known as the Tasmanian tiger, still exists. One group of amateur sleuths have been using camera traps in the southern Tasmanian forests to find evidence of its existence, and in 2017 released a video purporting to show the animal, although the quality of the recording is anything but conclusive.
一些爱好者相信，袋狼通常称为塔斯马尼亚虎，仍然存在。一些业余侦探已经在塔斯马尼亚南部的森林中，用录相机来寻找它存在的证据，并在2017年发布了一段视频，声称展示了这种动物，因录像的质量还没有定论。
“Reports made by local people who live in the same landscapes as possibly extinct species definitely shouldn't be dismissed,” says Turvey. “Often such reports represent the only source of information about rare animals across large areas of remote habitat, which would require huge amounts of funding to survey using standard ecological approaches.”
特维说：“那些生活在与可能灭绝的物种同一地区的当地人，所做的报告绝对不应该被忽视。这类报告往往是有关偏远栖息地，珍稀动物的唯一信息来源，使用标准的生态方法进行调查，需要大量资金。”
Living things that appear to return from extinction are dubbed “Lazarus” species. Perhaps the most famous example of which is the coelacanth, a species of fish that has remained unchanged for millions of years and until 1938 was only known from fossil records before a living example was found off the South African coast. There are thought to only be a few hundred coelacanths left in the world. But their natural habitat, in deep waters may explain why they remained undetected for so long.
从灭绝中恢复过来的生物被称为“拉撒路”（Lazarus）物种。最著名的例子是腔棘鱼（coelacanth），一种数百万年都保持不变的鱼类，直到1938年才从化石记录中被发现，在南非海岸发现了一个鲜活的例子。人们认为世界上只剩下几百只腔棘鱼了。但牠们的自然栖息地在深海中，这可以解释为什么牠们这么长时间没有被发现。
One sure way to put to bed the debate about whether the Japanese wolf really is still roaming wild in the mountains of Chichibu would be to obtain DNA evidence. This, far more than any number of photographs and recordings, could conclusively prove that the sightings are of wolves rather than domesticated dogs turned wild.
要解决日本狼是否还在秩父山脉中四处游荡的争论，可靠的方法是获取DNA证据。这比任何数量的照片和录音都更有说服力，目击到的是狼而不是被驯化的野狗。
But there is another possibility. Wolves are able to successfully breed with domesticated dogs and produce fertile offspring, so there is a chance the population survived beyond the date of their presumed extinction by hybridising with local pets. A hybrid wolf-dog might explain the small, docile wolf-like animal Yagi saw 23 years ago. Although, in reality, the crossover between wolves and pet dogs would be so infrequent that a stable population would be unlikely to survive. Many large, domesticated dogs are also able to produce a wolf-like howl – so, stray pets which have ventured into the mountains might explain the noises locals heard.
但还有另一种可能性。狼能够与驯养的狗繁衍后代，通过与当地的宠物杂交，狼的种群有可能在被认为灭绝之后存留下来。23年前，亚吉看到了小而温顺像狼一样的小动物。现实中，狼和宠物狗之间的交叉非常罕见，以至于一个稳定的种群不太可能存活下来。许多大型的驯养狗也能发出类似狼一样的嚎叫，因此，那些冒险进入山区的流浪狗也许可以解释当地人听到的声音。
Systematic collection and analysis of reported wolf sightings made by local people would be a very important next step to see what sort of patterns these reports might show in terms of distribution, says Turvey. Yagi agrees. If they find more evidence from their 70 remote cameras, they might better determine where to set up a harmless trap in order to capture one for DNA tests.
特维说，系统地收集和分析当地居民发现狼的报告，将是非常重要的下一步，通过这些报告可以了解在分布方面可能会有的模式。亚吉表示同意。如果他们能从70台远程摄像机中找到更多的证据，就可以决定在什么位置布设一个无害的陷阱，以便捕获一个进行DNA测试。
“I believe I have been pure and passionate about finding the wolf, which is why I have been blessed with a sighting,” says Yagi. “I do believe I have been chosen by God to find and prove the existence of the Japanese wolf. Unfortunately there are nay-sayers, and I keep thinking ‘Get off the desk! Come and look for them in the mountain’.”
亚吉说：“我一直对寻找狼充满了热情，这也是为什么我有幸看到了狼。我相信我是被上帝选中来发现并证明日本狼存在的人。不幸的是，总有反对者，我在想，离开讲道台！到山里去找牠们吧。”
He is determined to keep patiently work towards his goal.
亚吉决定继续耐心地朝着目标努力。
“Personally, I'm inclined to believe that something is out there in the mountains, whether it be the extinct animal itself or its descendants, and that sufficient time, money and technology will be able to reveal what it is,” says Martin, who will continue his own research having been inspired by Yagi. He has already had a new lead.
马丁表示：“就我个人而言，我倾向于相信山里存在某种东西，无论是灭绝动物本身还是其后代，而且我们有足够的时间，资金和技术来揭示它是什么。”马丁在亚吉的启发下继续自己的研究，并有了新的线索。
“Two weeks ago my mother informed me that she heard a series of unusual howls from the forest behind her Chichibu home, prompting me to set up infrared trail cameras in the area,” says Martin. “I'm waiting to see what I find.”
马丁说：“两周前，我母亲告诉我，她听到了秩父家后面的森林里发出一连串不寻常的嚎叫声，这促使我在该地区安装了红外线跟踪摄像头。我在等着看我能找到什么。”