贸易战为何利好黄金？

中文版

贸易战作为国际经济摩擦的一种形式，往往会导致全球金融市场的不稳定。然而，在这种背景下，黄金却常常被视为避险资产，受到投资者的青睐。那么，贸易战为何利好黄金呢？

一、风险厌恶情绪升温

贸易战引发的不确定性往往导致投资者风险偏好降低，寻求避险资产。黄金作为传统的避险工具，能够在市场动荡时提供相对稳定的投资回报。因此，当贸易战升级时，投资者往往转向黄金，寻求资产保值增值。

二、货币贬值预期

贸易战可能导致参与国的货币贬值，进而推高通胀压力。在这种情况下，黄金作为价值储存工具，其价值相对稳定，能够抵御货币贬值带来的损失。投资者为了保值，会倾向于购买黄金。

三、全球经济增长放缓

贸易战可能导致全球经济增长放缓，甚至陷入衰退。在这种情况下，股票、债券等风险资产的表现可能会受到冲击，而黄金作为避险资产，能够在经济低迷时期保持相对稳定。因此，投资者在经济增长放缓时，更可能选择黄金作为投资目标。

英文版

Why Trade Wars Are Favorable for Gold

Trade wars, as a form of international economic friction, often lead to instability in global financial markets. However, in such a context, gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset and is favored by investors. So, why are trade wars favorable for gold?

I. Rising Risk Aversion

The uncertainty caused by trade wars often leads to a decrease in investors' risk appetite and a search for safe-haven assets. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven tool, can provide relatively stable investment returns during market turbulence. Therefore, when trade wars escalate, investors tend to turn to gold to seek asset preservation and appreciation.

II. Currency Depreciation Expectations

Trade wars may lead to the depreciation of currencies of participating countries, thereby increasing inflationary pressure. In such cases, gold, as a value storage tool, maintains its relative stability and can hedge against losses caused by currency depreciation. Investors tend to purchase gold as a hedge against depreciation.

III. Slowing Global Economic Growth

Trade wars may lead to a slowdown in global economic growth or even a recession. Under such circumstances, the performance of risky assets such as stocks and bonds may be impacted, while gold, as a safe-haven asset, can maintain relative stability during economic downturns. Therefore, investors are more likely to choose gold as an investment target when economic growth slows down.